An explicit approach for modeling the performance of transportation networks immediately after an earthquake
Publication Name
Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Abstract
Surface transportation systems play a vital role in supporting a region’s functionalities. They are expected to remain operational before and even after a hazardous event (e.g. an earthquake). The importance is evident to estimate the post-disaster performance of traffic systems under a probability-based framework, considering the uncertainties arising from both the hazards and the transportation infrastructure fragilities. This paper proposes an explicit approach for evaluating the performance of transportation systems immediately after an earthquake event. The method estimates the spatial distribution of vehicles in the traffic network in a closed form and thus is relatively efficient compared with traditional methods (e.g. an agent-based method). The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated through an application to the post-earthquake performance assessment of the traffic network in Tangshan City, China, a city that suffered catastrophically from the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake. Analytical results show that the proposed method can well reflect both the temporal and the spatial variations of the traffic flow, and thus offers rational support for predicting the post-earthquake traffic scenarios and for optimizing strategies to improve the transportation capability under emergent conditions.
Open Access Status
This publication is not available as open access