Climate refugia: Joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Authors

Daniel G. Gavin, University of Oregon
Matthew C. Fitzpatrick, University of Maryland
Paul F. Gugger, University of California
Katy D. Heath, University of Illinois
Francisco Rodriguez-Sanchez, University of Cambridge
Solomon Z. Dobrowski, University of Montana
Arndt Hampe, University of Bordeaux
Feng Sheng Hu, University of Illinois
Michael B. Ashcroft, Australian MuseumFollow
Patrick J. Bartlein, University of Oregon
Jessical L. Blois, University of California
Bryan C. Carstens, Ohio State University
Edward B. Davis, University of Oregon
Guillaume de Lafontaine, Universite Laval
Mary E. Edwards, University of Southampton
Matias Fernandez, University of Illinois
Paul D. Henne, University of Bern
Erin M. Herring, University of Oregon
Zachary A. Holden, USDA Forest Service Region
Woo-Seok Kong, Kyung Hee University
Jianquan Liu, Lanzhou University
Donatella Magri, Sapienza University
Nicholas J. Matzke, University of Tennessee
Matt S. McGlone, Landcare Research NZ
Frederik Saltre, University of Adelaide
Alycia L. Stigall, Ohio University
Yi-Hsin Erica Tsai, University of Notre Dame
John W. Williams, University of Wisconsin

RIS ID

100730

Publication Details

Gavin, D. G., Fitzpatrick, M. C., Gugger, P. F., Heath, K. D., Rodriguez-Sanchez, F., Dobrowski, S. Z., Hampe, A., Hu, F., Ashcroft, M. B., Bartlein, P. J., Blois, J. L., Carstens, B. C., Davis, E. B., de Lafontaine, G., Edwards, M. E., Fernandez, M., Henne, P. D., Herring, E. M., Holden, Z. A., Kong, W., Liu, J., Magri, D., Matzke, N. J., McGlone, M. S., Saltre, F., Stigall, A. L., Tsai, Y. & Williams, J. W. (2014). Climate refugia: Joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography. New Phytologist, 204 (1), 37-54. © Copyright 2014. New Phytologist - reproduced with permission.

Additional Publication Information

Paper reproduced with permission from the New phytologist.

Abstract

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.