GVM based copy-dynamics model for electricity load forecast

Authors

Binbin Yong, Lanzhou University, University of WollongongFollow
Liang Huang, Lanzhou University
Fucun Li, University of WollongongFollow
Jun Shen, University of WollongongFollow
Xin Wang, Lanzhou University
Qingguo Zhou, Lanzhou UniversityFollow

RIS ID

126315

Publication Details

Yong, B., Huang, L., Li, F., Shen, J., Wang, X. & Zhou, Q. (2019). GVM based copy-dynamics model for electricity load forecast. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 542 203-211. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 7th International Conference on Frontier Computing (FC2018): Theory, Technology and Applications

Abstract

Electricity load forecast, as the core of electricity scheduling, plays a vital role in meeting the basic needs of modern human life. It has been widely studied in the past few decades. However, literature studies have shown that, as a problem of time series forecast, electricity forecast is prone to be influenced by many environmental factors, which result in lacking accuracy and stability in practice. In this paper, the General Vector Machine (GVM), a new type learning machine which was derived from Neural Network (NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), is applied into electricity load forecast. Meanwhile, copy-dynamics idea is introduced to electricity load forecast. Results reveal that, based on copy-dynamics, the maximum precision promotion of GVM reaches 71.7%, compared with BP. Hence, GVM and copy-dynamics models have great potential in electricity load forecast.