A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia



Publication Details

Bakar, K., Kokic, P. N. & Jin, H. (2015). A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 64 (5), 755-778.


2015 Royal Statistical Society. Previous climate research concluded that causal influences which have contributed to changes in frost risk in south-eastern Australia include greenhouse gas concentration, El-Niño southern oscillation and other effects. Some of the climatic indices representing these effects have spatiotemporal misalignment and may have a spatially and temporally varying effect on observed data. Other indices are constructed from grid-referenced physical models, which creates a point-to-area problem. To address these issues we use a spatiodynamic model, which comprises a blending of spatially varying and temporally dynamic parameters. For the data that we examine the model proposed performs well in out-of-sample validation compared with a spatiotemporal model.

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