A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia
RIS ID
100465
Abstract
2015 Royal Statistical Society. Previous climate research concluded that causal influences which have contributed to changes in frost risk in south-eastern Australia include greenhouse gas concentration, El-Niño southern oscillation and other effects. Some of the climatic indices representing these effects have spatiotemporal misalignment and may have a spatially and temporally varying effect on observed data. Other indices are constructed from grid-referenced physical models, which creates a point-to-area problem. To address these issues we use a spatiodynamic model, which comprises a blending of spatially varying and temporally dynamic parameters. For the data that we examine the model proposed performs well in out-of-sample validation compared with a spatiotemporal model.
Publication Details
Bakar, K., Kokic, P. N. & Jin, H. (2015). A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 64 (5), 755-778.