Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations

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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics


The evolution of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2100 has been studied using data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate long-term changes using coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate models, focusing on the CMIP Historical and ScenarioMIP ssp370 experiments, for which detailed tropospheric-ozone diagnostics were archived. The model ensemble has been evaluated against a suite of surface, sonde and satellite observations of the past several decades and found to reproduce well the salient spatial, seasonal and decadal variability and trends. The multi-model mean tropospheric-ozone burden increases from 247±36 Tg in 1850 to a mean value of 356±31 Tg for the period 2005-2014, an increase of 44 %. Modelled presentday values agree well with previous determinations (ACCENT: 336±27 Tg; Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project, ACCMIP: 337±23 Tg; Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, TOAR: 340±34 Tg). In the ssp370 experiments, the ozone burden increases to 416±35 Tg by 2100. The ozone budget has been examined over the same period using lumped ozone production (PO3 ) and loss (LO3 ) diagnostics. Both ozone production and chemical loss terms increase steadily over the period 1850 to 2100, with net chemical production (PO3 -LO3 ) reaching a maximum around the year 2000. The residual term, which contains contributions from stratosphere-troposphere transport reaches a minimum around the same time before recovering in the 21st century, while dry deposition increases steadily over the period 1850-2100. Differences between the model residual terms are explained in terms of variation in tropopause height and stratospheric ozone burden.

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Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency



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