Evolution of a synthetic population and its daily mobility patterns under spatial strategies for urban growth
This chapter proposes and tests an innovative method to integrate a spatial scenario-based approach with a synthetic population evolution model and a mobility assignment model. Results are applied to assess future housing demand by dwelling type, and to identify future hubs for daily trips associated to an urban growth scenario in a case study. Main contributions of this research include the generation of urban population data at fine spatial and temporal scales and the inclusion of spatial planning into a synthetic population evolution model. Although current limitations associated to model assumptions and data availability are identified, the model is built in a platform flexible to adapt to new parameters and datasets. Big data is envisioned as a potential source of future improvements, through better and more frequent characterisation of population behaviour and interdependencies between demographics, land use and transportation.