Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure

Authors

Quentin A. Hanich, University of WollongongFollow
Randi Rotjan, Boston University
Transform Aqorau, University of Wollongong
Megan Bailey, Dalhousie University
Brooke M. Campbell, University of WollongongFollow
Noella Gray, University of Guelph
Rebecca Gruby, Colorado State University
John Hampton, Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency
Yoshitaka Ota, University of WashingtonFollow
Hannah Parris, University of Wollongong
Chris Reid, Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency
Rashid Sumaila, University of British Columbia
Wilf Swartz, University of British Columbia

RIS ID

134723

Publication Details

Hanich, Q., Rotjan, R., Aqorau, T., Bailey, M., Campbell, B., Gray, N., Gruby, R., Hampton, J., Ota, Y., Parris, H., Reid, C., Sumaila, U. Rashid. & Swartz, W. (2018). Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure. PNAS, 115 (52), E12122-E12123.

Abstract

In PNAS, McDermott et al. (1) analyze a 2014-2016 central Pacific fishing surge, focusing on the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA) inside the Kiribati exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The authors incorrectly attribute the surge to the anticipated industrial fishing closure of PIPA and describe the phenomenon as a blue paradox (i.e., an unintended negative consequence of a conservation policy). However, a broader analysis demonstrates that this surge was unrelated to the closure of PIPA and was due to a strong El Ni~no event that created a fishing surge across multiple EEZs and high seas, not just PIPA (2).