The future maritime security environment in Asia: a risk assessment approach
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This article adopts a risk assessment approach identifying the maritime threats and challenges that might confront Asia over the next decade. It addresses the evolving strategic environment, shifts in the maritime balance of power and the likelihood and impact of particular threats in the maritime domain. Issues considered include: the consequences of maritime sovereignty disputes; developments in regional naval forces; increased exploitation of marine resources, both living and non-living; and trends in illegal activity at sea. Three scenarios for the future maritime security environment are identified along with the possibility of "strategic shocks" that reflect inherent uncertainty in attempting predictions of the future. The paper concludes with possible measures to mitigate the risks of the threats and challenges.