A spectral analysis of the Australian time series for the investment and savings ratios on monthly data over the period from September 1959 to December 2005 reveals that the major cyclical components of the savings and investment ratios cohere strongly. This suggests there is a medium to long term relationship between investment and savings. Further, the investment and saving ratios cohere strongly with the business cycle suggesting a procyclical pattern of investment and saving behaviour on Australian data. A subsequent long memory analysis reveals that the saving and investment ratios, the investment ratio and real GDP and the savings ratio and real GDP are fractionally cointegrated. The policy implications are explained.
This conference paper was originally published as Felmingham, B and Corray, AV, The cyclical and trend behaviour of Australian investment and savings, in Proceedings of the Australian Conference of Economists, The Economic Society of Australia, Western Australia branch, 25-27 September, 2005, 1-31.