Publication Details

Yahia, A. & Metwally, M. M. (2007). Impact of fluctuations in oil prices on Libyan economic growth. Middle East Business and Economic Review, 19 (1), 39-55.


This paper examines the impact of fluctuations in Libyan oil exports on Libyan economic growth. The paper uses "export as an engine of growth model". Such a model is applied to total output as well as sectoral outputs. However, this study uses a Koyck distributed lag scheme. The paper also uses cointegration analysis to examine the long-term trade relationship between Libyan GDP and its oil exports. The results suggest that are spread effects from oil exports to the rest of the economy. However, when both the component and inflationary effects are excluded (but not the real gain from the rise in export prices) the results suggest no evidence of spread effects. This conclusion is supported by sectoral output analysis. Results of cointegration analysis suggest that there is no long-term relationship between Libyan oil exports and non-oil GDP. In other words, the two variables do drift too far apart from each other over time.