Three Essays on Energy Consumption Modelling

<p dir="ltr">Alongside the introduction, literature review, and conclusion chapters, this thesis consists of three chapters—Chapters Three, Four, and Five—each derived from a publication or conference presentation and each presenting an empirical study on energy consumption modelling.</p><p dir="ltr">Chapter Three examines the energy security and economic growth nexus of 14 non-OECD Asia countries (located in the SAARC and ASEAN regions) for the period 1996 to 2019. The chapter considered five different energy security measures for non-renewable energy sources as factors to investigate this nexus. These energy security measures focus on energy availability, developability, and accessibility dimensions. The panel corrected standard error (PCSE) estimator was used to investigate the influence of energy security indicators on growth. The study further assessed the moderating effect of six institutional quality variables to explore the detrimental effect of energy security indicators on economic growth. The results revealed that an increase in the non-renewable energy demand-supply ratio intensified energy insecurity and reduced economic growth in the region. Therefore, policy makers should shift their focus on energy supply security by investing more in green energy sources.</p><p dir="ltr">Chapter Four explores the effect of aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption on total factor productivity (TFP) growth, across 13 non-OECD Asia countries spanning from 1990 to 2019. Stochastic frontier analysis technique was employed to derive the TFP series, and the PCSE method was used to analyse this relationship, while robustness analysis was conducted by replacing dependent and independent variables and employing alternative techniques. The study also addressed potential endogeneity problems by using the valid instrument variable and employing the two-stage least square method. The findings indicated that energy consumption had a positive effect on TFP growth. A 1% increase in energy consumption enhanced TFP growth by 0.073%. This study aimed to provide valuable insights to energy policymakers regarding the significance of energy usage in TFP growth.</p><p dir="ltr">Chapter Five analyses the relationship between energy uncertainty and energy consumption. Using the panel vector autoregressive (VAR) generalised method of moments (GMM) method, this study investigated the relationship between EUI and the energy consumption of six Asian countries from 1996-2021. The study used the EUI index recently introduced by Dang et al. (2023). The findings of the study indicated that an increase in EUI will reduce energy consumption per capita in Asia. The negative impact of EUI on energy consumption is primarily due to the oil price channel. The increasing uncertainty in the energy sector affects oil prices, which in turn influences energy consumption. The Granger causality findings showed that there was bidirectional causality between EUI and energy consumption. This chapter further analysed the moderating effect of trade openness and FDI in examining that relationship. The results suggested that both moderating variables reinforce the negative influence of EUI on energy consumption.</p>