Systems modelling approach to drought management strategies in the Lake Kariba district of Zambia

The frequent occurrences of drought in the Lake Kariba District has been accompanied by decUning agricultural productivity. This in turn has resulted in low income, famine, starvation, malnutrition, poor health and poverty among the people in the lake Kariba District, the central objective of this thesis is, therefore, to derive a set of agricultural management strategies that would minimize these adverse effects of drought. The pursuit of this objective involved the following: (a) formulation of decision frameworks for the "with irrigation" and the "without irrigation" strategies; (b) empirical demonstration of the applicability of these frameworks to the Lake Kariba District; (c) illustration of management strategies that are pertinent to the district; and (d) analysis of the trade-offs that possibly exist between the goals of income maximization and food stability.