University of Wollongong
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Policy Briefing: Abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment

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posted on 2025-12-09, 23:24 authored by Nerilie J Abram, Ariaan Purich, Matthew H England, Felicity S McCormack, Jan M Strugnell, Dana BergstromDana Bergstrom, Tessa R Vance, Tobias Stål, Barbara Wienecke, Petra Heil, Edward Doddridge, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Thomas J. Williams, Anya M Reading, Andrew Mackintosh, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, Ann Kristin Klose, Philip W Boyd, Steven L Chown, Sharon RobinsonSharon Robinson
<p dir="ltr">Abrupt changes are developing across Antarctica’s ice, ocean and biological systems. These systems interact so that a change in one part can increase the risks of triggering abrupt change in other parts of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.</p><p dir="ltr">For Australia, abrupt changes are expected to bring:</p><ul><li>Increased vulnerability to coastal infrastructure and communities due to accelerating sea level rise;</li><li>Intensified global warming through reduced carbon dioxide removal by the Southern Ocean;</li><li>Amplified regional warming due to Antarctic sea-ice loss; and</li><li>Reduced rainfall over Southern Hemisphere continents from shifting weather patterns.</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Existing efforts through the Antarctic Treaty System to reduce non-climatic pressures on Antarctica’s biological systems and establish protected areas are critical for building resilience, but to be effective they must be in addition to decisive policy action that mitigates global climate changes.</p><p dir="ltr">The only way to avoid further abrupt Antarctic changes and their impacts is to reduce CO2 emissions rapidly enough to limit global warming to as close to 1.5°C as possible.</p><p dir="ltr">Even with transformative emission reduction actions, plausible futures including multiple abrupt changes from Antarctica should be considered by governments, businesses and communities in their planning for future climate and sea-level rise impacts.</p>

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