The Role of Deterrence in Australian Strategic Thought: Implications for ANZUS

This article scrutinizes the expanding role of deterrence in Australian strategic thought and defense policy, particularly since 2009. It explores how Australia has transitioned from a focus on territorial defense to adopting deterrence by denial as a central element of its national defense strategy. The authors assert that although Australia has rhetorically embraced deterrence, substantial gaps remain in strategy development and force capabilities, undermining the credibility of its deterrence posture. The article argues that there is a risk in viewing planned capabilities, such as nuclear submarines, as inherently deterrent without sufficient strategic rationale. The article also examines the compatibility of Australia’s deterrence approach with the US concept of integrated deterrence. The authors conclude that while Australian and US deterrence thinking are broadly aligned, both nations must address strategic deficiencies to bolster the credibility and effectiveness of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.