Modelling fire weather and fire spread rates for two bushfires near Sydney

The observed headfire rates of spread of two severe wildfires in heathlands near Sydney were compared with predictions made using a meteorological model to forecast wind speeds and a new simple empirical fire behaviour model that uses fuel height and wind speed at 2 m above ground to predict rate of spread. The predicted rates of spread, using both actual and predicted wind speeds, compared favourably with observed rates of spread averaged over 2 hours and 5.5 hours for the Bell Range and Royal National Park fires respectively.