Discipline-specific forecasting of research output in Australian universities

Abstract: This paper develops and estimates a cross-sectional model for forecasting research output across the Australian university system. It builds upon an existing literature that focuses either on institutional comparisons or studies of specific subjects, by providing discipline-specific results across all of the ten major disciplinary areas as defined by Australia’s Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST). The model draws upon four discipline-specific explanatory variables; staff size, research expenditure, PhD completions, and student-staff ratios to predict output of refereed articles. When compared with actual averaged output for 2000-2004, the results are highly statistically significant.