Strategic Appraisal of Interdependent Infrastructure Provision: A Case Study from the Thames Hub

Abstract: Evaluation of potential infrastructure projects varies from straightforward financial assessment, to explicit methods requiring multi-criteria valuation and uncertainty analysis. All, however, are siloed to their own sector and in many cases the stand-alone project under consideration, ignoring the growing interdependence between the sectors. Here we develop a long-term multi-sector, multi-attribute decision analysis, demonstrated through a case study on the Thames Hub proposal. Uncertainty is assessed through sensitivity analysis, provisioning time-dependency analysis and an adapted real options analysis, to produce bounded valuation of decision pathways. Further consideration of spatial feedbacks is then reviewed through a land-use transport model. The results are brought together to demonstrate a strategic, integrated infrastructure assessment methodology, focused on delivering long-term resilience despite uncertainty. Citation: Young, K. & Hall, J. (2014). Strategic Appraisal of Interdependent Infrastructure Provision: A Case Study from the Thames Hub. In: Campbell P. and Perez P. (Eds), Proceedings of the International Symposium of Next Generation Infrastructure, 1-4 October 2013, SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, Australia.