Do the asset pricing factors predict future economy growth? An Australian study

In this paper we examine whether past returns of the market portfolio (MKT), the size portfolio (SMB), the book-to-market portfolio (HML) and the idiosyncratic volatility portfolio (HIMLI) can predict growth rates of ten major Australian economic indicators from 1993 to 2010. We find that all four factors can be used to predict growth rates in Australian economic indicators. We also find high returns of SMB and HML portfolios precede periods of good states of the macro economy, although high returns of HIMLI portfolio precede periods of bad states of the macro economy.