Publication Details

Perez, P., Wickramasuriya, R., Huynh, N. & van Delden, H. (2015). Stepping away from trend analyses for regional integrated planning and modelling. In T. Dolan & B. S. Collins (Eds.), International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure (ISNGI 2014) (pp. 195-200). United Kingdom: University College London.


Strategic regional plans aim to achieve aspirational objectives such as vibrant communities,affordable transport, productive economy and protected natural environments. But planners often lack decision support tools capable of tracking complex dynamic interactions between these various components. Many current regional planning models rely on feed-forward trend analyses. These trends are based on demographic or economic assumptions that lock-in regional growth into a unique pathway. The weaker the initial assumption is, the less plausible the evolution of other components of the regional development. In fact, useful regional planning models need to reproduce the co-evolution of land use, transport, economic and demographic dynamics. We have developed a dynamic model that includes five interconnected modules: (1) a cellular automata-based land use module, (2) a 4-step transport model with dynamic allocation of traffic, (3) a dynamic input/output economic model, (4) a synthetic population-driven demographic model, and (5) a utility module to capture the evolution of demand for energy and water as well as production of sewage and solid waste. We use a sophisticated simulation platform called GEONAMICA to build and integrate foregoing modules for the Illawarra region in New South Wales, Australia.