The complementarity hypothesis of integration: regionalism, multilateralism and the ASEAN-5
It is hypothesized that multilateralism and regionalism are complementary and that regional trade performance is partly a consequence of multilateralism and partly a consequences of like-minded and committed regionalism. Intervention analysis is applied using intra-ASEAN-5 (the five founding countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations: Indonesia, Malaysis, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) historical data by isolating four historical trade policy interventions. It is concluded that intra-ASEAN-5 exports and national Gross Domestic Products doubled from the first stage of regionalism to the second stage of multilateralism; and doubled again from the second stage of multilateralism to the third stage of regionalism.
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