Abstract

This paper introduces the intra-daily implied volatility (IDIV), a new volatility measure to price currency option accurately. The IDIV is developed based on the implied volatility estimated on equally spaced intra-daily intervals. This model captures the intra-daily level aggregate information related to foreign exchange (FX) behavior, which changes every five minutes. The implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) are widely accepted as good estimates of daily and intra-daily price volatility, respectively. Therefore, using the options pricing framework, we assess the capability of IDIV against IV and RV in pricing foreign currency options. A comparison of out-of-sample forecasts under both the F-test and Diebold-Mariano test reveals that the IDIV outperforms both the IV and the RV in estimating one-day-ahead option prices. In other words, the IDIV estimation framework provides a more accurate and efficient volatility estimate for pricing currency options. The findings of this study indicate that the forward looking intra-daily information of IDIV is appropriate to price options correctly rather than forward looking daily and historical intra-daily information is obtained by the IV and RV, respectively.

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.